The development status and future trend of lithium battery industry
November 13, 2022
First, the development status of lithium batteries in my country
After decades of development and innovation, my country's lithium battery industry has made great breakthroughs in both quantity and quality, and driven by policies and subsidies, many globally competitive companies have emerged in the lithium battery industry. In 2021, my country's lithium battery shipments will reach 229GW, and it is expected that shipments will reach 610GW in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 25%.
Through market analysis in recent years, the main features are as follows:
(1) The market scale continued to grow. From 2015 to 2020, the scale of China's lithium-ion battery market continued to grow, from 98.5 billion yuan to 198 billion yuan, and to 312.6 billion yuan in 2021. However, due to factors such as price, the growth rate slowed down, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping from 37.76% to 13.14% in 2020. Calculated by capacity, my country's lithium-ion battery output in 2020 is 148GWh, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, but by 2021, the output will reach 324GWh, a year-on-year increase of 118.9%, and the output is growing rapidly. According to this number, the output has continued to grow in recent years. From 2016 to 2021, my country's lithium-ion battery output has increased from 8.47 billion to 23.26 billion, but the year-on-year growth rate has dropped from 51.3% to 23.4%.
(2) Power batteries account for a large proportion and grow faster. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles has driven the continuous growth of power batteries. In 2021, the output of consumption, power and energy storage lithium batteries will be 72GWh, 220GWh and 32GWh respectively, up 18%, 165% and 146% year-on-year respectively, accounting for 22.22%, 67.9% and 9.88% respectively. fastest growing. Among the power batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries account for a high proportion. In 2021, the total output of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 125.4GWh, accounting for 57.1% of the total output, with a cumulative increase of 262.9% year-on-year.
(3) The square battery gradually occupies the dominant position. The prismatic battery is the most cost-effective, and has now occupied the mainstream of the Chinese market. In 2021, the market share of the prismatic lithium battery will be about 80.8%. Soft-pack battery cells have the highest energy density, but because the aluminum-plastic film is easily damaged, the battery pack needs to be equipped with more protective layers, resulting in a lack of overall energy density. About 9.5%. The round battery has the lowest cost, but the energy density is low. Fewer companies choose this type of battery, so the market share is about 9.7%.
(4) The cost of upstream raw materials fluctuates greatly. Affected by multiple factors such as the industrial cycle, the epidemic, and international tensions, the cost of upstream raw materials for power batteries will continue to increase in 2022. For example, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has been soaring, from 41,600 yuan / ton in 2013 to 474,900 yuan / ton in June 2022, especially in 2022, the price increase is high, and the price increase in June 2022 is as high as 425.3% . However, since the beginning of July, the prices of materials such as positive and negative electrodes have declined to a certain extent.
2. Market Status of Lithium Battery Materials Industry
Lithium-ion batteries generally use lithium alloy metal oxides as positive electrode materials, graphite as negative electrode materials, and use non-aqueous electrolytes. Specifically, it can be divided into positive electrode material, negative electrode material, electrolyte, diaphragm, aluminum-plastic film, etc.
(1) Positive electrode material
The positive electrode material of lithium battery is the decisive factor of its electrochemical performance, which plays a leading role in the energy density and safety performance of the battery, and the cost of positive electrode material is also relatively high, accounting for 30%-40% of the cost of lithium battery material. Materials are the most critical materials for lithium batteries. Lithium batteries are divided according to the cathode material system, which are mainly divided into technical routes such as lithium cobalt oxide, lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials. Lithium cobalt oxide has high cost and short life, and is mainly used in 3C products; lithium manganate has low energy density, short life but low cost, and is mainly used in special vehicles; lithium iron phosphate has long life, good safety and low cost , mainly used in commercial vehicles; ternary materials, especially NCM, have high energy density, good cycle performance and long life, and are mainly used in passenger vehicles. At present, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are the mainstream routes in the industry. Benefiting from the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage markets, lithium iron phosphate will become the fastest growing cathode material in the next five years.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the market concentration of lithium cobalt oxide has been continuously improved in recent years, and the trend of head concentration has gradually emerged. In 2021, Xiamen Tungsten New Energy, Shanshan Energy, Mengguli New Materials, Bamo Technology, and GEM (002340) will occupy the top five lithium cobalt oxide market shares, with market shares of 42%, 14%, 10%, and 9% respectively. , 6%, and the cumulative proportion is as high as 82%. The high concentration of lithium cobalt oxide is closely related to the significant stratification of high-end and low-end products, the increase of high-end product barriers, and the maturity of the overall market. In the future, high-voltage lithium cobalt oxide and other products may promote product barriers to further increase. The market concentration of ternary materials is relatively low. Rongbai Technology ranks first with a market share of 11%, followed by Bamo Technology, Dangsheng Technology (300073), and Long-term Lithium, with a market share of 10%. , the gap between manufacturers is relatively small, and the industry pattern is relatively scattered. The concentration of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is relatively high, and Hunan Yuneng and Defang Nano (300769) are dominant. Among them, Hunan Yuneng has a market share of 22% and is in a leading position. Followed by German Nano, accounting for 20%.
The data shows that the market size of my country's lithium battery cathode materials has increased from 21.38 billion yuan in 2016 to 75.19 billion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 36.9%. In 2021, the market size will reach 87.71 billion yuan. It is predicted that the market size of my country's cathode materials will reach 100.23 billion yuan in 2022.
(2) Negative electrode material
Anode materials are an important part of lithium-ion batteries. It mainly affects the capacity, first efficiency and cycle performance of lithium batteries. The negative electrode material is made of negative electrode active material, binder and additives mixed into a paste and evenly spread on both sides of the copper foil, and is formed by drying and rolling. Anode materials account for about 5% to 15% of the cost of power batteries.
At present, the anode materials of lithium batteries are mainly artificial graphite and natural graphite, and the development trend is to dope silicon into the graphite anode to form a silicon-based anode with higher energy density. At this stage, artificial graphite is the mainstream route for negative electrodes. Silicon-based materials have great application potential, and the future market space is broad.
In 2021, China's lithium battery anode market shipments will be 720,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 97%. As the consistency and cycle performance of artificial graphite is better than that of natural graphite, and it is more suitable for the needs of power and energy storage batteries, the proportion of artificial graphite production and shipments has continued to increase to 84%, while the market share of natural graphite has dropped to 14%. The market concentration of anode materials in my country is relatively high, and the industry competition pattern is relatively good, with CR3 reaching 56%. Among them, Betterray, Putailai (603659) (Jiangxi Zichen) and Shanshan (600884) have always been in the top position, accounting for 26%, 15% and 15% respectively. Dongguan Kaijin has a market share in recent years. has increased, accounting for 13%.
Data shows that the market size of my country's lithium battery anode materials has increased from 6.46 billion yuan in 2016 to 14.02 billion yuan in 2020, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21.4%, and the market size in 2021 will reach 15.91 billion yuan. According to the China Business Research Institute, the market size of anode materials in my country will reach 17.8 billion yuan in 2022.
(3) Electrolyte
The electrolyte is the carrier of ion transport in the battery, specifically, it plays the role of conducting ions between the positive and negative electrodes of the lithium battery, and is the guarantee for the lithium ion battery to obtain the advantages of high voltage and high specific energy. Lithium battery electrolyte is generally prepared from high-purity organic solvent, electrolyte lithium salt, necessary additives and other raw materials under certain conditions and in a certain proportion. Among them, according to their different structures, organic solvents can be divided into the main components are lithium hexafluorophosphate, ethylene carbonate, phosphorus pentafluoride and so on.
At present, the concentration of my country's lithium battery electrolyte industry is relatively high, and the concentration of the top three in the industry's business scale exceeds 60%. At the same time, in recent years, my country's leading lithium-ion battery electrolyte enterprises have continued to invest in building factories and expanding production. The industry competition pattern is stable, and the concentration is further improving. Relevant data shows that the top three domestic lithium-ion battery electrolytes are Tianci Materials (002709), Xinzhoubang (300037), and Cathay Huarong. In 2021, the market share of the above three companies will total 67.1%. Among them, Tinci Materials has the highest market share and is the absolute leader in the industry, accounting for 33.1%
Data show that in 2021, my country's lithium battery electrolyte will increase from 110,000 tons in 2017 to 507,000 tons. It is estimated that my country's lithium battery electrolyte shipments will reach 626,000 tons in 2022.
(4) Diaphragm
Lithium battery separator is one of the raw materials of lithium battery. It is located between the positive and negative electrodes inside the battery, which ensures the passage of lithium ions and hinders the transmission of electrons. The performance of the separator determines the interface structure and internal resistance of the battery, which directly affects the capacity, cycle and safety performance of the battery. The separator with excellent performance plays an important role in improving the overall performance of the battery.
The manufacturing process of lithium film is divided into dry method and wet method. From the perspective of diaphragm product structure, my country's diaphragm market shipments are still dominated by wet diaphragms. The wet-process separator has higher performance and thinner thickness, which can improve the energy density of lithium batteries. The core advantages of dry-process diaphragms lie in lower cost, low investment in production lines, and low unit energy consumption. They are more suitable for application scenarios that are highly cost-sensitive and require low energy density, such as the energy storage market.
In terms of wet-process diaphragms, the industry pattern of 'one super, many strong' has been presented. With the large-scale release of production capacity in 2021, Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812) will produce more than 3 billion square meters of diaphragms, further consolidating its leading position in the wet-process diaphragm market. , the market share of wet diaphragm exceeds 50%. Xingyuan Materials (300568) and Sinoma Technology (002080) ranked second.
In terms of dry-processed membranes, the overall market pattern of 'three pillars' is presented. In the case of the release of production capacity and the large demand of downstream major customers, Zhongxing New Materials has become a leading dry-process diaphragm enterprise in one fell swoop. Xingyuan Materials took second place with a market share of 21%. Other players include Huiqiang New Materials and Sinoma Technology.
The separator production process is complex, the capital investment is large, and it requires long-term research and development and production experience accumulation. In recent years, driven by the growth in demand for lithium batteries, lithium battery separators have also achieved rapid growth in shipments. Data shows that in 2021, China's lithium battery diaphragm shipments will be 7.8 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. It is estimated that in 2022, the shipment of lithium battery separators in my country will exceed 15 billion square meters, and the market size will reach 3.67 billion yuan.
(5) Copper foil
Lithium battery copper foil is used as the negative current collector of lithium ion battery and acts as the carrier of negative electrode active material; the cost of lithium battery is not high, about 5-10%, but it has an important impact on the overall performance of the battery. Therefore, lithium copper foil is an important part of lithium batteries that cannot be ignored. According to different thickness, lithium battery copper foil can be divided into thin copper foil (12-18 microns), ultra-thin copper foil (6-12 microns) and ultra-thin copper foil (6 microns and below). Since new energy vehicles have higher requirements on energy density, power batteries tend to use ultra-thin and ultra-thin copper foils with thinner thicknesses.
Benefiting from the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle and lithium battery industry, China's lithium battery copper foil development is in a leading position in the world, and its products cover thin copper foil, ultra-thin copper foil and ultra-thin copper foil. At present, my country's 6-nanometer lithium battery copper foil market is relatively broad, but the traditional 7-8 nanometer copper foil market is highly competitive.
In 2020, the top five lithium battery copper foil shipments in my country are Longdian Huaxin, Nord Co., Ltd. (600110), Jiayuan Technology, Tongguan Copper Foil (301217) and Jiujiang Defu, Longdian Huaxin with 18.4 % market share temporarily ranked first.
At present, China has become the world's largest producer of lithium battery copper foil. From 2015 to 2021, the average growth rate of China's lithium battery copper foil industry is as high as 80%. In 2020, China's annual lithium battery copper foil shipments were 125,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, including 105,000 tons shipped by domestic companies and 20,000 tons shipped by foreign companies. In the next few years, after the new energy vehicle industry continues to be driven by national policies and industry adjustments, the market is expected to enter a stage of rapid development again, and power batteries will drive China's lithium battery copper foil market to maintain a rapid growth trend. In 2021, lithium battery copper foil will ship 154,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 180,000 tons in 2022.
(6) Aluminum plastic film
Aluminum-plastic film is the core material of soft pack battery, which plays a key role in battery lightweight. Compared with packaging materials such as steel shell, aluminum shell or plastic shell, aluminum-plastic film has the advantages of light weight, thin thickness and flexible shape design, and is gradually becoming the mainstream of the market. Overall, the market size of my country's aluminum-plastic film industry is on the rise. From 3 billion yuan in 2016 to 4.1 billion yuan in 2020, the compound annual growth rate will reach 8.1%, and it will reach 4.8 billion yuan in 2021. According to the forecast of China Business Industry Research Institute, the market size of my country's aluminum-plastic film industry will reach 5.7 billion yuan in 2022.
(7) Equipment
In the process of battery production, the positive and negative materials are separated and evenly stirred into a slurry, the stirred positive material is smeared on the aluminum foil, and the negative electrode material is smeared on the copper foil. The positive and negative materials are separated by a separator, and the coated pole piece is further compacted to increase the energy density. Then according to different types, slicing, baking, winding, shelling, electrolyte injection, etc. are carried out, and finally the packaging test is carried out.
The required lithium battery equipment includes vacuum mixer, coating machine, roller press, winding machine, liquid injection machine, testing machine, etc. Lithium battery equipment is mainly divided into front section, middle section and rear section. The front-end equipment has the highest value and is mainly controlled by Japanese and Korean companies. my country's leading technology in back-end manufacturing and production of lithium battery equipment has reached the international advanced level, and the price advantage is obvious. In terms of revenue scale, Pioneer Intelligence (300450) is the absolute leader in the equipment field, with related business revenue of 6.956 billion in 2021. Next is Yinghe Technology (300457), with related revenue of 4.907 billion, and other companies include Keheng (300340), Putailai, Hangke Technology, Huazi Technology (300490) and so on.
XWELL battery eqipments:
3. Prediction of the development of the lithium battery industry in 2022
At present, the impact of the epidemic on the production side has gradually eased. According to downstream sales and upstream capacity utilization, lithium batteries are still in short supply, and companies have expanded production capacity. In terms of raw materials, domestic new energy vehicles are more sensitive to cost, the demand for lithium iron phosphate is stronger than that of ternary precursors, and the price remains high. At present, the price of battery cells has risen, and the gross profit margin of battery manufacturers has improved. Considering that the valuation of the lithium battery sector has been at the bottom in recent years and the demand for energy storage has continued to increase, some regions have begun to subsidize automobile consumption, and the lithium battery industry chain will continue to develop rapidly in the later stage.
(1) The explosion of energy storage applications has formed a trend of simultaneous growth with EVs. In 2021, the global energy storage battery shipments will be 203.5GW, and my country's shipments will be 43.44GW, accounting for 21.3%. With the advancement of "dual carbon" and the rapid development of green electricity, the demand for energy storage is becoming more and more urgent. According to a third-party forecast, the global shipment of lithium batteries will reach 1,218GW in 2025, and the proportion of energy storage will reach 36%.
(2) The proportion of square batteries continued to rise. The proportion of power type square batteries has further increased, energy storage batteries are dominated by square iron lithium, and the production progress of cylindrical type 4680 is accelerated.
(3) The concentration of EV battery market continues to increase. CATL (300750) and BYD (002594), as the first echelon, have a market share of more than 70%, Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074) and AVIC Lithium Battery have a market share of nearly 5%, and the third echelon has a market share of less than 3%, poor (5) Energy storage applications continue to grow, and EV demand remains strong. There is still a growing trend.
(4) The price of power batteries continued to rise. Affected by factors such as rising raw materials, reduced capacity due to power cuts, dual control of energy consumption and increased labor costs, the price of power battery cells is temporarily difficult to fall.
(5) There is still a gap between the supply and demand of upstream raw materials. Lithium iron phosphate, which accounts for the largest proportion, is due to insufficient production capacity, limited new production capacity, and tight demand; the electrolyte gap is further expanded, and the expected price range is 100,000-150,000 yuan / ton, the largest increase.
(6) Core technologies such as sodium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries are still making breakthroughs. Affected by raw material resources and costs, such batteries have received a high level of attention, but it is difficult to achieve mass production in a short period of time and cannot compete with lithium batteries.
Fourth, the future trend of lithium battery industry
(1) The new technology of the battery industry is gradually becoming mature. The module-free design of lithium batteries, blade batteries, clip batteries and other system structure innovations have achieved large-scale application, and breakthroughs have been made in cutting-edge technologies such as high-nickel cobalt-free batteries and solid-state/semi-solid-state batteries. At the same time, with the advancement of technology, the energy level of power batteries continues to rise. The energy density of the ternary prismatic battery is close to 300Wh/kg, and the soft pack battery has reached 330Wh/kg; the energy density of the semi-solid battery has also exceeded 360Wh/kg, and it is expected to achieve 400Wh/kg by 2025; in the future, the energy density of the lithium-sulfur battery is expected to reach 600Wh/kg.
In particular, liquid electrolyte Li-ion batteries are at risk of thermal runaway, and oxide electrolytes are expected to be an important choice for high-performance batteries. Future batteries will develop towards higher specific energies, and the entire cell will evolve from liquid to safer hybrid solid-liquid and all-solid-state batteries. At the same time, high-nickel and lithium-rich manganese-based cathodes with higher specific energy will become a major development direction to meet the requirements of passenger cars with a cruising range of 1000km and the requirements of electric aircraft; in addition, based on modified lithium manganate, lithium iron phosphate , The positive electrode material of nickel manganese spinel is matched with the high-capacity negative electrode material to form a solution for the battery life of 600 kilometers of pure electric vehicles.
(2) Accelerate the promotion of battery recycling to achieve the "dual carbon" goal. Batteries have high recycling value, and retired batteries can still be recycled, upgraded and put into use. Even when the battery is scrapped, the lithium-cobalt-nickel resources in it can be recycled. The recycling of metals in cathode materials and the recycling of aluminum and copper in batteries are not only critical to the security of the supply chain, but also of great significance to the achievement of carbon emission goals. At present, there are three main battery recycling methods: physical recycling, fire recycling, and wet recycling. (1) Physical recycling can reduce carbon emissions in the entire battery production chain through recycling; (2) Fire recycling methods reduce carbon emissions and consume relatively large amounts of energy; (3) Wet recycling will reduce energy consumption, but There are problems such as the discharge of liquid solvent pollutants. According to the estimates of relevant institutions, the recycling of battery materials will form a scale in 2030; around 2050, the supply of original mineral resources and recycled resources will reach a considerable level. In the longer term, recycled resources will gradually completely replace the demand for original resources.
(3) Lightweight, high energy density, high safety and fast charging are important development directions of the industry in the future. In recent years, consumer electronic products have developed in the direction of fashion and thinning, ergonomic shape design and mobile interconnectivity. In the context of the expansion of radio frequency frequency bands, pixel density improvement, and enhanced processor performance of consumer electronic products, consumer electronics The energy consumption and heat generation problems of electronic products are also increasingly prominent, and the demand for lithium-ion batteries with light weight, small size, large capacity, high energy density, customizable size, good safety performance and fast charging is increasing. At the same time, in the face of the rapid development of electric vehicles and energy storage markets, the performance of power batteries in terms of high safety, high specific energy, long life and fast charging has attracted consumers' attention.
(4) Technological progress further promotes the development of the industry. Electric bicycles and low-speed electric vehicles will increasingly use lithium-ion batteries to replace traditional lead-acid batteries; in the field of consumer battery applications, the maturity and large-scale commercial application of 5G technology will generate demand for replacement of smart mobile devices. In addition, the rise of emerging electronic products such as wearable devices, drones, and wireless Bluetooth speakers will also bring new markets to consumer batteries; in the field of energy storage battery applications, grid energy storage, base station backup power, home optical storage systems, There is a lot of room for growth in electric vehicle light-storage charging stations. It is foreseeable that the development space of the lithium-ion battery industry is broad.